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This is where a cover probability calculator comes into play. November 30 The Panthers’ win total continues to dip as they lost another game in Week 12. For a bet to be positive EV, the team’s cover probability has to be high enough to compensate for the additional vig the sportsbook charges. Point spread: Chiefs (-3.5) cover by winning by more than 3.5 points (8) Moneyline: Chiefs win as -172 favorites (bet 10 to win 15. The underdog may see a value such as +11.5 (+105), which means youll have to bet 100 to win 105 if your team successfully covers. You might think that any team with a greater than 50% chance of covering makes for a positive expected value bet, but this isn’t always the case. When to use the NFL cover probability calculator

According to BetMGM, 68 of the bet count and 66 of.

When a team’s true value is higher than their market value, their chances to cover the market spread rises above 50% and there’s the potential for a bet with positive expected value. There has been one-sided play against the Jets all summer long and that’s moved this line all the way to Buffalo -2.5 as of Sunday morning. The “true” value of a team is how many points better or worse they actually are, while the “market” value of a team is how many points better or worse they are according to a consensus spread from sportsbooks. To make it easy to leverage this model, we’ve created a calculator that tells you the cover probability and expected value of a bet given a team’s “true” value and the current market spread.